It Ain’t Over

As I said last 28 June over DZMM, it is conventional wisdom that says those in jail due to PDAF will have no chance in 2016. The trial has not even started and some have crystal balls that are already certain.  As I have often said, the ball is round and anything can happen.  Such as voters monitoring the deportment and maturity of those presently arrested.  One works the underdog psyche, the other approaches it quite maturely considering this is the second arrest but still striking to the very cord because he was with the King of the masses.  The third, not yet arrested but sticking to his guns like a battle-scarred warrior who has been through a lot with the legal system vindicating him often. 

Three generations of political names with two heavily supported by classes D and E and the third having served the nation for fifty years and of last act chairing the impeachment court with such brilliance, consistency and discipline that this Administration would not have pulled the Corona impeachment without him.

How ironic indeed that the proximate cause delivered to BSA3 would be the same circumstance that will get him under the radar of selective justice as defined by the Aquino administration.  Had the presiding officer knew that he would be fair game to BSA3, would Corona be impeached at all?  Had Corona not pulled out the walkout, would he be still Chief Justice?  Would fate have a different ending?

I guess Tuwid Na Daan is selective justice.  Napoles is not the sum total of the  82 non-government organizations; DBM gave 70% of the PDAF documents of the three (3) Senators unlike the rest and we are talking of only Php2.2 Billion and not the sum total of Php10.2 Billion.  So where are the rest?  Why are the three (3) positioned as the symbolical representation of plunder?

Is it political? Of course, anything and everything is political considering we have a free-for-all system that negates any primaries to vet and limit the candidates leading to the national election.  Some are saying Revilla and Estrada are dead politically.  That betrayal is a tool that is readily made available.

If Gibo Teodoro still feels betrayed, you just have to turn the pages of history under this Administration and see what betrayal means. More so, you just have to see that betrayal is part and parcel of the game called politics wherever one is.  The sooner you get off the deep end, the better for the country.  One has to play the game wisely.

But then again, there are individuals who do not want to go to the process of campaigning and would rather have the proverbial silver plate given freely and easily but that it not character.  In order to rule, one needs to be muddied.  One needs to engage.  And that is politics anywhere one is.

So is Estrada and Revilla politically dead?  The answer there is no, they are not.  One needs to understand the concept of measured capacity in political management. The psychographics of voters are important. How a candidate behaves and executes in a 90-day period is vital. Having the right mix of air and ground wars are crucial. And of course the message frame, that was milked to the pulp by the Aquino campaign team in 2010, both with surveys saying for the first time that corruption was an issue and the coining of Villaroyo, a triangulation strategy that defined all opponents because the campaign was done via association: Aquino to the mother and all opponents of Aquino as Arroyo’s representation.  Would 2016 be about corruption or would it be management and governance? Of getting things done?  Whoever frames the question well in surveys and positions it effectively will frame 2016.

In 2010, the cardinal mistakes of those who ran were: 1. Flood the airwaves with ads without much strategy (You are not a soap or a product and it is all about reach and frequency); 2. Inability to articulate a clear message (what is your take away?); 3. Inability to answer back when framed (what is your pivot strategy?); 4. Laziness (You can’t win without going around); 5. Wrong reading of what the survey is saying (Where is the beef?); 6. PCOS (What is your containment strategy?), 7. Lack of a base organization (a business organization has been proven not a good base organization. It is good for votes but not disciplined to execute and deal with local pols and leaders); 8. Hubris (Humility wins); 9. Inability to use volunteers to the max (they are not just warm bodies); and 10. Sell out (Contingency planning is crucial).

2016 is not a level playing field because the admin bet has the machinery and the money to make the run. In fact, they are using it more often these days.  The COMELEC will have three vacancies come February 2015 so one can infer a managed approach at that level.  But absent a strong candidate from the administration, who will be forced to defend its record thus sharing the positives and negatives before even presenting the anointed one's accomplishment, it will be a tough climb.

And the PDAF cases are not yet on trial mode.  With continuity as the playbook, DAP, EDCA and BBL as well as the GAA for 2015 are the alphabet soup to the soul.