Don't Do Ads Now

I once met an ad guy who laughed at political campaigners who do everything by the numbers. He said that it is not the way to win an election. It was like a red flag to me because here was an ad guy saying there is another way of winning, when all along winning political campaigns is all about having 50.1 percent of the votes. Again, I repeat, elections are all about having the numbers to win and the ads are mere tools to increase awareness. They do not win elections.read more

Political Marketing: Battle of products and not advertisements

Selling Candidates is a title of the book launched on 13 May 2008 during the First Campaigners-Media Interface at the Hyatt Hotel and Casino in Manila. The Ateneo School of Government, Newsbreak, and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) should be congratulated for their effort to bring together the heavyweights in the political consulting, campaigns, and political party establishment. KAS even brought in, straight from Germany, Dr. Helmut Jung, GMS Managing Director.read more

Ads Do Not Win Political Campaigns

In 2004, I was part of an effort where political advertisements played a vital role in the senatorial campaign of then candidate Mar Roxas. That campaign heavily relied on surveys, focus group discussions, and frequency maps that combined air and ground wars. It also relied heavily on organization. Many questions have been asked about that campaign. Many stories remained untold, more particularly the behind-the-scenes ones and backroom maneuverings. But I guess that would be told in fondness when campaigners try to recollect the shared experience we’ve had in making our then candidate be number one. read more

Linking with The LOBBYiST

I have been gone for quite sometime not because I do not want to continue this blog but because I have been busy with another product of my company, PUBLiCUS (www.publicusltd.com). We have launched three successive products last quarter of 2007 up to this June 2008. These are our Vox Opinion Research, our online magazine known as The LOBBYiST and our political risk assessment service known as PRISA to be launched by end of June 2008.

I hope you enjoy reading the various issues we have considered and please do leave your comments here or at The LOBBYiST. Cheers!

Comandante en Jefe

Fidel Castro, 81, has announced his retirement as president of Cuba after serving 49 years in the aftermath of an armed revolution against the dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista. His announcement is five days short of his current mandate set to expire on February 24.

In 1965 he became First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and led the transformation of Cuba into a one-party socialist republic. In 1976 he became president of the Council of State as well as of the Council of Ministers. He also held the supreme military rank of Comandante en Jefe ("Commander in Chief") of the Cuban armed forces. On July 31, 2006, after undergoing intestinal surgery for diverticulitis, he transferred his responsibilities to the First Vice-President, his younger brother Raúl Castro. Castro is both admired and feared. Admired by leaders of the Third World for standing up to the United States but feared by some for suppressing freedom in Cuba.

As his political sunset mixes with the dark clouds, the man who loves to deliver long speeches in his green military fatigues said:
``I neither will aspire to nor will I accept, the position of president of the council of state and commander-in-chief,'' Castro wrote, according to Granma in its online edition. ``My only desire is to fight as a soldier for my ideas.''

When a so-called tyrant knows when to step down, somehow we in the Philippines hope to see a new dawn where leaders will owe up to their responsibilities and finally say, I am wrong and I am truly sorry for breaking your trust. I am resigning as President... ah someday probably.

The Building Storm

A flurry of texts came my way starting February 9, all enjoining friends to join the march at various points wearing various colors all meeting at the Ninoy Aquino statue by Paseo de Roxas. As the day nears, I kept praying there will be many who will join and this will not be the same faces or the same hakots seen in almsot all post-Erap rallies. I also prayed for sun so that it will be a warm day of again creating history.

On Friday, 15 February I decided not to join the various groups marching to the Paseo. I decided to walk on my own trying to remember when was the last time I joined a march, asking myself why I am here and what's the point of joining this effort. It was a cloudy afternoon with threats of rain pouring any minute. I decided to pass by a huddle where a security guard was telling everyone "ang daming tao, ito na siguro". I was wondering what he meant by that statement but along the way, you can hear people saying, "sana ito na..." Yes the crowd was big but its not the typical crowd you would see in the early days of people power.

What makes the rally unique were each of the streets leading to the statute were headed by different groups; there were no politicians going up the stage (they were all down observing and feeling their way), its a cross section of the society who listened and quietly left. The crowd was thick then some left by 5 pm and a different set of people, mostly young law students came by early evening, increasing the number to almost 10,000.

Indeed, these are again the small steps we have to take for our country. As a people, it seems we never learn.

"What is Neri afraid to say and Why?" - Jun Lozada

"Many speculations have been made as to what Neri knows about the ZTE-NBN most particularly the direct involvement of Pres. Gloria Arroyo in this abominable affair. After his damaging "Sec. May 200 ka dito" demolition of Abalos, the discredited former Comelec Chairman, many were left disappointed when Neri suddenly clamped up when the Senators started asking him about the nature of his conversation with Arroyo, no amount of coaxing, cajoling and threats was enough to break his Code of Omerta. The question on many people's mind was, What was Neri trying to protect when he repeatedly invoked "Executive Priviledge" during that gruelling 12 hour Senate Blue Ribbon Committee hearing on live television?

We have known the Truth all along as one of the few people that Neri confided his predicament during those fateful days of April 2006, and how he wanted to resign his post of NEDA Director General and Secretary for Socio-Economic Planning over this incident where he lost all his moral respect for Pres. Gloria Arroyo.

We are doing this document to give the public an understanding of this predicament.

What is Neri afraid to tell the public? He is afraid to tell the public that after he reported the Abalos P200 million peso bribe offer, Arroyo casually told him to ignore it and work for its recommendation for approval anyway. That when he protested that it is too controversial and may attract the wrong kind of attention from media, Arroyo retorted back "Pakulo lang ni Joey yan and his father". When he tried to reason that it may not be accommodated in the Chinese ODA package because it has been filled up with a list of projects already,

Arroyo again ordered him to remove the low cost housing project and some water project to accommodate the ZTE-NBN deal in the ODA loan. That when he attempted to reason that it may not be approved in time for the Boao Forum which was only two days to go from that fateful April day, Arroyo with raised voice told him to include the ZTE-NBN project in the agenda of the following day's meeting of a combined NEDA Board and Cabinet Committee, who as expected promptly approved the project paving the way for the contract signing between ZTE and DOTC in China the next day. Neri is afraid to tell the public that this conversation took place between him and Arroyo because it might spark another impeachment complaint against Arroyo.

Why is Neri afraid to tell the public about this conversation with Arroyo? He is afraid that another impeachment will simply result to more expenses of public funds similar to the Hyatt 10 impeachment crisis, because as DBM Secretary who replaced Boncodin, he was entrusted with the large scale DBM payola operation of Arroyo to Congressmen, Senators and Governors not quite similar to the crude Panlilio incident that the public is witnessing now. He is afraid with a more partisan Andaya at the helm of DBM, more public funds will be spent to buy the silence and favour of these greedy legislators and local executives.

He is afraid that with Arroyo's firm control of public funds she can buy all the necessary support from most sectors of society to keep her in power.

He is afraid that even if the opposition knows about this conversation with Arroyo, he is afraid that the opposition will not pursue a serious impeachment proceedings against Arroyo, because it is not to their political interest that Noli de Castro becomes President in case Arroyo is impeached and becomes a more formidable political opponent in 2010. This insincere and unpatriotic goal of the opposition is already being manifested by the malicious speed that the Erap pardon is being cooked by Ronnie Puno together with the Erap camp to hastily put a united front of "Birds of the same corrupt feather" coalition against the emerging JDV led political opposition.

He is afraid that even if the Church knows the truth about Arroyo's direct involvement in the ZTE-NBN deal, the Church will still not call for her resignation due to the closeness of Arroyo's trusted lady liason to the Cardinal of Manila who was very effective during the "Hello Garci" crisis. That Arroyo's Religious Affairs Operators have the Bishops firmly in their "donation" graces, as again manifested by the quick rebuttal of the Mindanao Bishops' of the call of their fellow bishops in Luzon who where calling for the resignation of Arroyo just after Arroyo gave them a visit in Mindanao.

He is afraid that even if the military knows the truth about Arroyo's direct involvement in the fraudulent ZTE-NBN deal, the AFP brass is much to indebted to Arroyo for their position and the perks that goes with their position, that they have demonstrated this twisted loyalty with their willingness to detain, remove from the service and even shoot their own men for voicing out their legitimate concerns regarding the corruption and moral authority of their Commander in Chief. It is a sad spectacle to see the respected warriors of the Marines & Special Forces rot in jail with their ideals, while their men are dying even without receiving the measly P150 per day combat pay that was promised to them by Arroyo due to lack of funds & generals gets a gift bag similar to those given to the governors and congressmen just for having dinner with Arroyo the day after that infamous breakfast & lunch meeting where bribe money flowed scandalously free.

He is afraid that even if the Media knows the truth about Arroyo's direct involvement in the ZTE-NBN scam, Media will simply wither in the torrents of cash and favors similar to how the Hyatt 10, Hello Garci crisis were killed in the media headlines and Radio& TV coverages. Although he believes in the integrity of a handful of Journalist, he believes that a handful of these mavericks cannot withstand the hordes of paid lackeys of Malacanang. Especially that the Arroyo crisis team is now being handled by the best mercenary money can buy, from Ramos Sulo Operation, Erap's DILG and now Arroyo's troubleshooter, Ronnie Puno. Ably supported by the Media and PR money from PAGCOR being handled by Cerge Remonte to buy positive airtime, headlines and editorials.

He is afraid that even if the Business Sector knows about the truth of Arroyo's direct involvement to defraud the coffers of the taxes they are paying, the businessmen will be reluctant to rock the boat of the current economic uptrend, especially with the very close personal and business relationship of the so called leaders of the big business like Ricky Razon of ICTSI, Donald Dee of PCCI and Francis Chua of the Filipino-Chinese Federation to Arroyo herself. He is afraid that the hard earned remittances of Filipino OFWs that is keeping the economy booming and that can keep the economy afloat even under any administration is being wasted under this unholy alliance of Arroyo and her favoured businessmen.

He is afraid that even if the Civil Society knows the truth about Arroyo's direct involvement in the ZTE-NBN deal, that the Civil Society is now tired of mass actions after witnessing two failed EDSA revolutions, that Civil Society is now afflicted with a "Rally Fatigue" and cannot muster enough public outrage to denounce Arroyo's "corruption with impunity". He is afraid that the middle class is now indifferent to the corruption that goes around them, not realising that the middle class are the ones mainly carrying the burden of the loan payments for these corrupt deals. He is afraid that the middle class are more interested to become an OFW & to leave this country leaving their family and children behind, and may not care anymore about the crimes being committed against their country by its own President.

He is afraid that even if the Masa, the students, the workers knows the truth about Arroyo's direct involvement in the ZTE-NBN deal to steal precious resources from public funds, that they are now too poor and impoverished to be able to afford the time to join mass actions against the abuses of the Arroyo administration, that these former vanguards of mass actions in the country are now completely dependent on financial resources of professional organizers and have turned themselves into a "Rally for hire" groups rather than a true and genuine political gathering shouting for reforms.

He is afraid that the public may not know the extent of corruption in this country and may wrongly believe that they can cure corruption by simply replacing Arroyo with another person. He is afraid that the public may overlook the systemic and institutionalized nature of the source of corruption in this country, he is afraid that the people will again opt for a regime change without concern or a plan to correct the root causes of corruption in the country. He is afraid that people may not realize that it is not bringing Arroyo down that is difficult, it is establishing a new order that is the difficult task.

This is the predicament of Neri which I want people to realize especially to those who are asking Neri to tell the truth."

Of Mice & Mice

Ah... the best laid plans of mice and men... is what I remember a day after the intifada, with due apologies to John Steinbeck and my Arabs and Jewish friends. Nobel prize winning author John Steinbeck you see is the author of the famous novella Of Mice and Men while the intifada is an Arabic word translated to mean a rebellion.

The day after the removal of Rep. Jose de Venecia as speaker of the 14th Congress and the installation of Rep. Prospero Nograles, a congressman called me and said "look what happened to the House, members of Congress are lining up to the two son." My, my, my when during the time of Martial Law we hate KB and Imee Marcos. Today, its take this in your face brand of politics. The eldest was seen on the night of the kill presiding over the sidelines like a peacock so proud of its color, strutting his wares and mixing it up with cameramen. He was like a director shooting a scene. The neophyte, on the other hand, delivered a speech (I believe his inaugural) and talked about CHANGE. The eldest after the count, went back to his seat brimming with a singular accomplishment of removing a Speaker who cannot discipline his son and who keeps hiding in the skirt of the mother. Logically, he was proud. He had a unique gift to a proud father. The neophyte, on the other hand, sought the removed Speaker and shook his hand probably saying - "Speaker, di to personalan." In the Year of the Rat, mice are everywhere.

The word CHANGE was also murdered by the repetitive invocation of Members of Congress - young and old, those who voted in favor of removing the Speaker. Let us watch and see what change they will do so that they will not end up just like mice.

A Bloody Monday

In the column I wrote for www.thelobbyist.biz last November 27, 2007, I challenged Speaker Joe de Venecia to be the Speaker of the People. Yes, a lot of pundits were one in saying his taking the floor last 4 February 2008 was too late but its what he revealed and what he will continue to reveal that will make or unmake the rebirth of the quintisenntial trapo of Philippine politics.

In my 7 years at the House of Representatives, I had the ringside seat in observing the congressman from the 4th District of Pangasinan. He was your typical back slapping, thumbs up, winking guy who never says no. He will always try to accommodate you but somehow you have this sense or feeling that nothing will come out of it. The trappings of power were all around but the Speaker I knew was an ideas person. He coins words to describe his ideas such as the One Billion Trees Bill, 747 Program for Economic Take-off, Debt-for-Equity, Interfaith Dialogue (when it was not in vogue to do so), of late he had the Debt-for-MDG Investments.

When I started my lobby firm (www.publicusltd.com) in 2003 and handled the medical malpractice initiative (which is now known as the patients' rights), I again met Speaker Joe at his palatial home at Magnolia St., Dasmarinas with the victims and Ms. Korina Sanchez. After a presidential run and recovering from that fall, the Speaker was again in his elements. Sad to say, he was still the Speaker of the past, this time aged by years of politics and pained by the death of his daughter.

So when news came out over the weekend prior to the bloody February 4, I was shocked that the Speaker never planned for a preemptive strike or a counter offensive. I guess with his great political instinct, he knew in his heart that the Speakership is just a single vote and that is whoever holds sway in Malacanang. He knew quite well that it can be taken from him anytime. He knew then, when JDVIII came out, as he knew Monday morning that things will be forced, ready or not.

Its quite telling what Rep.Romualdo (Lone Dist, Camiguin) revealed on the floor about allowing consultations and giving time for Speaker Joe to consult but I guess there are people waiting to put the first knife courtesy of the son of the former Speaker Monching Mitra. When Rep. Baham Mitra declared only the seat of the Speaker vacant, he was clinical and stoic - its payback time. In the words of Sen. Miriam Santiago, "its karma".

In the 14th Congress, there are 240 members. 219 are district members or 91% and 21 sectoral members or 9%. There are 116 neophyte members, 57 on second term and 67 in their last and third term. To unseat the Speaker, one would need 121 votes. Already, there were 143 who signed the manifesto shown to Speaker Joe morning of Monday, 4 February.

So when what was agreed in the morning of Monday was suddenly set aside and when colleagues try to prevent the incumbent Speaker from taking the floor, it was clear that the end was near.

Speaker Jose de Venecia extemporaneously delivered a scathing indictment against President Gloria Arroyo, Mike Arroyo and the First Family. All summed up in two of the areas hampering this administration: corruption and extra judicial killings. If the 4th ranking official in the succession ladder is cowed and shoved like dirt because the First Family need to exact revenge then really our country is going to the dogs. Sobra na. Tama na. There is a third phrase to that but I will stop myself here and just say as one leader said, "you cannot stop the march of history."

Who stood out among the legislators? Rep. Pinol (2nd Dist., North Cotabato) summed it up as the motion to declare the seat of the Speaker vacant "is not about Mindanao." Rep. Jules Ledesma (1st Dist., Negros Occ.) was quoted as saying: "what's wrong? I just don't get it. We remove a Speaker and retain all chairpersons? We blame the Speaker for the sagging image of the House and yet we know its a collective leadership. I really don't get it!" Rep. Ronnie Zamora (Lone Dist., San Juan) on his part asked the most salient questions of the night: "why the Speaker alone? What reforms? (same question expounded by Deputy Minority Leader Roilo Golez [2nd Dist., Paranaque]) Why should we now participate in this?"

By the end of the voting, 174 voted yes, 35 no and 16 abstained. The missing 15 votes were absent. The writing on the walls are telling. We just might have the tide we are hoping for.

Taking a Break...

Ahh, the Statute of Liberty, truly a sight to behold.

I am back from my sabbatical energized and raring to meet head on the challenges of a life of a lobbyist and political consultant. I was in California, Las Vegas, New york, Washington, DC in my month leave from work. Spending Christmas in California and New Year in the Big Apple.

In between the reunions and the family get-together was a chance to take a peek at the primaries. Its amazing how the primaries are able to separate the serious and the floating candidates for the presidency. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have several names in the list and look at them today, we have Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and John McCain and Mitt Romney for the Republicans. We should probably study, consider and modify a similar arrangement here where the almost 10 "presidentiables" can be subjected to such grueling debates.

As of today there are 10 names already being tossed around. Some are certain, others are being floated for what I call the PVS formula - that's the President or Vice-President or Senate formula. The names being mentioned are: VP Noli de Castro, Senate President Manny Villar, 2004 Senate No.1 Mar Roxas, 2007 Senate No. 1 Loren Legarda, Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Chiz Escudero (but technically he is not yet 55 years old), MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando, DOE Secretary Angie Reyes, Makati Mayor and UNO President Jojo Binay and DND Secretary Gilbert Teodoro.

Will discuss the names later as well as the battle royale of families (Arroyo vs. De Venecia) and the movements happening leading to 2010.

Cheers!